Brexit in the courts. Miller loses, but Supreme Court to hear on 17 Sept.

Gina Miller’s challenge to prorogation was unsuccessful but an appeal to the Supreme Court has been scheduled for 17 Sept. The court’s reasons are to be released shortly.

With the possibility of a new PM early next week this may all become somewhat academic.

Today the House of Lords has passed the Benn bill to prevent a no-deal Brexit and it will receive the Royal Assent on Monday.

It has been revealed that a former Prime Minister has been referred to by Mr Johnson in a leaked memo as ‘a girly swot’.

A Brexit Dictionary (2). Pro rogue, or anti rogue?

 

Constitutional crisis. What would happen if Mr Johnson advised the Queen to refuse the Royal Assent to an Act of Parliament requiring he seek an extension under article 50.

Contempt of Parliament. Mr Johnson’s possible situation if he refused to abide by any Act of Parliament requiring he seek an extension under article 50. Michael Gove has refused to say whether the government would abide by legislation against no-deal Brexit, if it were passed by Parliament. A case of ‘Who GOVErns Britain’ then (c. Heath, E 1974).

Cummings. ee, American poet (1894-1962) who broke the rules of punctuation. Dominic, chief adviser and major domo to Mr Johnson.

General Election. Cannot be called until 2022 under the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 unless either the Government or the Opposition put forward a motion of no confidence in the government. If this is passed there are then fourteen days for an alternative government to be formed and if this is not possible Parliament will be dissolved and there will be a general election at a time specified by the Prime Minister. Alternatively, as in 2017, Parliament may be dissolved before the expiry of five years from the previous general election if there is a two thirds majority for this in the House of Commons. The opposition may not necessarily cooperate in which case there could be no ‘snap election’ for Mr Johnson, but Mr Corbyn might have to accept the soubriquet ‘frit’ (c Thatcher, M).

GNU. A Wildebeest, celebrated in song by Flanders and Swann.  Alternatively, a Government of National Unity.

Interdict. Scottish for ‘injunction’. This was refused on Friday in the current proceedings in Scotland challenging the legality of the prorogation of Parliament by Mr Johnson, but the hearing of the proceedings has been advanced to this Tuesday. Gina Miller has launched a separate application for judicial review of Mr Johnson’s prorogation of Parliament to be heard on Thursday. Today’s ‘Times’ reports that space has been made for the Supreme Court to hear the inevitable appeal this coming Friday. A further application is before the court in Northern Ireland. A busy week for the judiciary.

Labour votes. What Mr Johnson may need to get a new withdrawal agreement through Parliament (see ‘Spartans’ below).

No deal Brexit, ways of stopping.

  1. Mr Johnson renegotiates a withdrawal agreement and seeks an extension from the EU under article 50 to get Parliament’s approval.
  2. Article 50 is revoked. Must be done by a PM so need a new PM via Vote of No Confidence (VONC).
  3. An extension to article 50 is sought. Must be done by a PM so need a new PM via VONC.
  4. Act of Parliament requiring PM to seek further specified extension under article 50 and to revoke article 50 if the EU had not given the extension sought by 30 October. See, too, contempt of parliament, constitutional crisis.

Making your mind up. Rare Eurovision win for UK in 1981. Alternatively, something Parliament was incapable of doing in the indicative votes in the Spring.

Rebel Alliance. Han Solo, Luke Skywalker, Princess Leia (still fighting the same enemy thirty odd years after their decisive victory).  Alternatively, Oliver Letwin, Dominic Grieve, Anna Soubry etc

Spartans.  Members of the European Reform Group who are likely to vote against any new withdrawal agreement negotiated with the EU by Mr Johnson.

Standing Order 24

From Parliament’s website

“An MP may apply to the Speaker for an emergency debate on Mondays to Thursdays during sitting time under the rules of Standing Order No. 24.

If the Speaker has given the MP leave they will have three minutes to make a speech after question time and any urgent questions or ministerial statements. The Speaker then decides whether to submit the application to the House.

The House will have to agree that the debate takes place. If the House agrees to the application the emergency debate will take place on a future day, usually the next sitting day. The motion to be debated will be “That the House has considered the matter of [Topic]”.

Expect Speaker Bercow to allow an emergency debate on a bill requiring the PM to apply to the EU for an extension under art.50.

TBP. The Brexit Party.  Hovering in the wings.

 

 

The Brexit dictionary.

 

P is for prorogue.

This is the action of discontinuing a session of a parliament or other legislative assembly without dissolving it. The Prime Minister, Mr Johnson, has today announced his intention to ask the Queen to prorogue Parliament in the second week of September ahead of a Queen’s Speech on 14 October.

Other notable proroguers have been Charles I, James II, Clement Attlee, and John Major.

Last month Lord Doherty in the Scottish Court of Session fast-tracked a legal challenge backed by 75 MPs and peers to prevent the Prime Minister Mr Johnson proroguing parliament to force through a no-deal Brexit. A hearing is scheduled for the end of the next week and in the meantime Jolyon Maugham QC who is representing the challengers has stated that he will be seeking an order that the prospective prorogation of Parliament for four and a half weeks from 11 September announced today be put on hold until after the result of that hearing.

S is for Supreme Court

Which is where this will probably end up.

Brexit. UK to exit with no deal on 31 October unless Parliament passes vote of no confidence in the government.

With the resignation of Mrs May and the end of any prospect of Parliament passing the withdrawal agreement reached with the EU last November, it is looking very likely that the UK will leave the EU with no deal on 31 October. This is the default position under the EU Withdrawal Act 2018. Analysis by Maddy Thimont of the Institute of Government shows that the only way a no-deal exit could be stopped would be by Parliament passing a vote of no-confidence in the government. https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/new-prime-minister-intent-no-deal-brexit-cant-be-stopped-mps-0

The ‘Cooper’ clause added to the 2018 Act would only have effect in relation to any proposed ratification of the proposed withdrawal agreement with the EU. The clause in the 2018 Act requiring required the Government to hold a vote in the Commons if no agreement had been reached with the EU by 21 January is somewhat time expired now.

Who’d want to be PM now?

PM gets extension to article 50.

 

The EU last night agreed to extend the period referred to in Article 50 as follows.

Conclusions – 10 April 2019
EUCO XT 20015/19 1
EN
1. The European Council takes note of the letter of Prime Minister Theresa May of 5 April 2019 asking for a further extension of the period referred to in Article 50(3) TEU.
2. In response, the European Council agrees to an extension to allow for the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement. Such an extension should last only as long as necessary and, in any event, no longer than 31 October 2019. If the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified by both parties before this date, the withdrawal will take place on the first day of the following month.
3. The European Council underlines that the extension cannot be allowed to undermine the regular functioning of the Union and its institutions. If the UK is still a Member of the EU on 23-26 May 2019 and if it has not ratified the Withdrawal Agreement by 22 May 2019, it must hold the elections to the European Parliament in accordance with Union law. If the United Kingdom fails to live up to this obligation, the withdrawal will take place on 1 June 2019.
4. The European Council reiterates that there can be no opening of the Withdrawal Agreement, and that any unilateral commitment, statement or other act should be compatible with the letter and the spirit of the Withdrawal Agreement and must not hamper its implementation.
5. The European Council stresses that such an extension cannot be used to start negotiations on the future relationship. However, if the position of the United Kingdom were to evolve, the European Council is prepared to reconsider the Political Declaration on the future relationship in accordance with the positions and principles stated in its guidelines and statements, including as regards the territorial scope of the future relationship.
6. The European Council notes that, during the extension, the United Kingdom will remain a Member State with full rights and obligations in accordance with Article 50 TEU, and that the United Kingdom has a right to revoke its notification at any time.

 

Accordingly, provided Parliament approves the necessary statutory instrument to amend ‘exit day’ in the EU Withdrawal Act 2018 in time, the UK will not leave the EU at 11pm  on 12 April 2019. The requisite SI is The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (Exit Day)
(Amendment) (No. 2) Regulations 2019.

Is half a deal better than a no-deal exit in a fortnight? Parliament votes today.

29 March. The government today is putting forward a motion to pass part of its withdrawal agreement with the EU, the withdrawal agreement, but not the political declaration. If this passes there will be an extension to exit day to 22 May in accordance with the agreement reached between the PM and the EU last week. If not, exit day will be 12 April unless a further extension is requested by the PM, whoever that may be. In the meantime Parliament votes again on indicative votes on Monday after the failure of any of the proposals put forward on Wednesday to obtain a majority.

 

MPs  voted by 286 to 344 to reject the government’s withdrawal agreement.

 

9 April. The House of Commons has just approved the government motion that the Prime Minister requests an article 50 extension until 30 June. Leaders of the 27 EU Member States will consider the request tomorrow at the meeting of the  Council of Ministers. If there is no unanimous agreement to extend article 50 then the UK leaves the EU without a withdrawal agreement on Friday at 11pm.

Brexit. Parliament takes control of the process but no deal exit on 12 April still a real possibility.

Last night MPs voted to take control of the Brexit process, and indicative votes will be held on Wednesday to endeavour to find a majority view in Parliament as to what form Brexit should take. This cannot affect the withdrawal process but can only give guidance as to the future negotiation after withdrawal of the relationship between the EU and the UK.

The PM stated she would introduce a statutory instrument to amend ‘exit day’ in the EU Withdrawal Act 2018 and this would be laid on Wednesday, so no exit on 29 March. Mrs Leadsom has now stated that this will take place after the indicative votes on Wednesday.

A further extension beyond 12 April can only be granted if the PM asks for one.  If the withdrawal agreement is passed then the extension would be to 22 May. If not then the UK would leave the EU on that date. It is possible that this might be forestalled by a vote of no confidence in the government followed by the appointment of a temporary PM with the mandate of requesting a further extension and ensuring the UK participates in the elections to the European Parliament on 23 May.

Brexit. UK leaves EU on 29 March?

Yes, unless ‘exit day’ in the EU Withdrawal Act 2018 is amended by statutory instrument. The procedure for this is set out here https://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/blog/changing-eu-exit-day-by-statutory-instrument. This states “Normally, from laying to making the SI, the draft affirmative procedure takes around six weeks.

However, given the steps outlined above, the process could be accelerated. We see no insuperable procedural obstacle to proceedings on the ‘exit day’ SI being completed by 29 March if the draft SI were laid, for example, on Friday 22 or Monday 25 March.”

 

No draft SI has yet been laid.

PM wins article 50 extension from EU

The PM asked for an extension of article 50 to 30 June.

The PM got a two-tier extension.

22 May if Parliament passes the withdrawal agreement

12 April if it doesn’t.

Much talk of ‘indicative votes’ in Parliament next week. If this leads to a consensus on the type of Brexit to be achieved, this could only affect the political declaration as to the  negotiation of the UK’s future relationship with the EU. The withdrawal agreement, backstop and all, cannot be changed and if it is not passed the UK leaves the EU on 12 April, subject to amendment by Statutory Instrument next week of “exit day” in the EU Withdrawal Act 2018, unless a further extension is granted. This would almost certainly require the UK to hold elections for the European Parliament on 23 May.

Brexit. Nine days to go. PM seeks short extension.

The Prime Minister has just written to the EU requesting an extension to article 50 up to 30 June. A common refrain among EU Members has been that for an extension to be granted there needs to be a plan. As Michel Barnier stated yesterday any extension must be “linked to something new, a new political event, a new political process”. It is by no means certain that the extension requested will be granted by leaders of all 27 Member States. It is possible that an extension may be granted subject to conditions, such as UK participation in the elections for MEPs on 23 May. The possibility of a no-deal exit on 29 March remains.

 

The European Commission has taken the following position on the request for an extension beyond 23 May, according to this report from Reuters a few hours ago.

The European commission opposes extending British membership of the European Union to June 30, as British prime minister Theresa May proposed on Wednesday, according to an EU document seen by Reuters.

In a note on the Brexit process reviewed by the commission at its weekly meeting on Wednesday, officials wrote that leaders meeting May at a summit on Thursday faced a “binary” choice of a short delay of  Brexit from 29 March to before 23 May or a long delay to at least the end of this year, with Britain obliged to hold an election on 23 May for European parliament lawmakers.

“Any extension offered to the United Kingdom should either last until 23 May 2019 or should be significantly longer and require European elections,” the document said. “This is the only way of protecting the functioning of the EU institutions and their ability to take decisions.”

EU states which were due to receive additional legislative seats after Brexit would need to know by mid- to late-April if they would be denied those seats because Britain was staying.

The note also said that in any extended membership, Britain should, “in a spirit of loyal cooperation”, commit to “constructive abstention” on key issues, such as the EU’s long-term budget and filling top EU posts after the May election.

 

So, that looks like a ‘no’.